ECON332: Blog 1 – Recessions and Economic Fundamentals

The last 20-year period has seen two relatively long and placid periods of economic growth and stability, sandwiched by three very different recessions (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). The 2001 recession was also known as the “dot-com” recession, and was tech-sector focused, as well as short and very mild. The 2007-2009 Great Recession was largely attributed to the housing market bust, and the more recent COVID pandemic is the result of our response to the disease–although there were some signs of the economy slowing down already in late 2019. Thus, the disease may have struck while the economy was already peaking. Paraphrasing Tolstoy, “Good times are all alike; yet bad times are each bad in their own way.”

Over the past couple of centuries, the U.S. economy has moved from an agrarian to a manufacturing, and finally to a service focused economy. Our emphasis on face-to-face service industry specialization may have made us particularly susceptible to the pandemic related job losses we have witnessed during the COVID crisis. While the current recession is still the worst experienced since the Great Depression, many people still think the economy is doing just fine. Job losses have piled up, and few expect to return to their previous employer.

Economic data of the past 20 years has provided some understanding about each of the previous recessions, and offer insight to our future recovery. Economists expect this recession to end just like all the others, and yet, the struggle here is unique. Jobs like paper production were already on the decline, but this crisis has absolutely crushed industries that supported the day-to-day office industry.

In a somewhat different angle to these stories, the COVID pandemic has resulted in a visible shift of the burden of household v. market work between men and women. Women have been called upon in greater numbers to help with schooling, and step away from paying jobs. This is somewhat alarming considering that the majority of our college-educated workforce is women, and that nearly 60% of college students are female.

The policy response has so far been somewhat astounding. From the unusual moves by the Federal Reserve (and here), to the $3+ trillion dollar fiscal stimulus, the economy has been primed for recovery. However, supplemental unemployment insurance benefits are ending, and the one-time stimulus checks do not appear to be replicated anytime soon.

Some Questions

What you should do here, is explore the data that surrounded the previous (and current) recession for thoughts about where we are headed. Do you think we need more stimulus from the fiscal or monetary authorities? Or do you think the economy is going to recover just fine on its own? What will be the long-run impact of this recent crisis on college graduates, families, and women in particular? Do you think this will have “long-run” implications on our economy? You might also consider the confounding factors of anti-immigration and anti-trade policy on the ability for the U.S. to compete going forward. These might be negatives or positives in your opinion.

The Goal & Grading

You can address any of these articles or questions, but do not feel overly restricted to use the ones that are mentioned here. It is a very good idea to use related articles and sources. You should form an opinion and back it up. Do NOT try to answer all of these questions. The entirety of your comment should be 500 words. Do NOT start by saying “I am writing this” because… I know why you are writing it! There is no one answer to any of the ideas or questions presented here. The point is more to learn to provide data-driven insights on issues that matter to you, while also providing some interpretation and story-telling. Do your best to use data to support your thoughts and not anecdotes (like “My Aunt Rhoda lost her job and … “). This should be written like a paper. Poorly written comments are subject to reductions. Repetitive comments are penalized, and those without a clear focus or emphasis are also not considered satisfactory. If you have any questions, please let me know.

49 thoughts on “ECON332: Blog 1 – Recessions and Economic Fundamentals”

  1. The aftermath of the pandemic will be with us for the long run. The economy that we had before the pandemic will never be the same again (1). Families are carrying a heavy weight on their shoulders to make ends meet during this pandemic. They are having to make extremely difficult financial decisions because they might have lost their jobs or have children that are at home learning virtually. The most difficult aspect of this is felt by single parents with children (2). Single parents make up 23% of the American population with children under the age of 18 years old. They are frantically trying to find people to watch their children while they are at work to make ends meet financially. Some parents decide to just stay home with their children and move back in with their parents to cut their expenses substantially. Single mothers are more susceptible to having issues financially than single fathers who are caring for their children. This is because woman tend to have jobs that do not allow them to work remotely (3). Single parents are trying to make the best outcomes for their children, and this is just another major bump in the road for them.

    The effects of this will be on going long after the pandemic subsides because this has taken a major toll on people’s mindsets. Many people will be hesitant to go back to their normal lives well after this virus crisis passes for fear of another major outbreak taking place (4). Parents that took the time off to care for their children will slowly be trying to get back to work and send their children back to school if they are comfortable with it. Many parents will continue to be hesitant about bringing their children to childcare while they work. This will make an impact on their overall income and well-being of the family in the long run.

    Sources:
    1. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/how-the-economy-will-look-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

    2. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/parenting/single-parents-coronavirus.html

    3. https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-schools-plan-to-reopen-single-parents-have-few-child-care-options-11596381796

    4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/business/coronavirus-economic-forecast-shiller.html

  2. Over six months ago the coronavirus was something discussed as if it was a distant problem, no one thought it would ever spread to the degree that it did, and continues to do so, in the United States and the world. More than thirty million Americans have lost their jobs since the pandemic hit the US in January (1) with the unemployment rate shooting up to 14.7% in April (2), something that hasn’t been seen since the Great Depression. Traditionally during recessions, there is a higher unemployment rate among men, as they make up a greater percentage of manufacturing and construction jobs–ones that usually take a toll during recessions–but this time it is different. Despite not even making up half of the workforce, in April women accounted for 55% of all lost jobs (3). One reason for this being that the pandemic has affected areas with a higher percentage of women employed, areas that have more interactions with people–like hospitality, restaurants, hotels. But another reason, one that I believe will have a more lasting impact, is due to the lack of child day care and in person schooling, forcing working parents to decide which one of them will have to stay home to take care of the kids. Whoever has the lower salary, usually the woman/mom, will probably end up staying home, and it feels like we are going back to the traditional idea that men/fathers should be the ones working and women at home. Even if women can work remotely, they are more likely to be bothered by their kids (especially if they are the only one at home), and therefore possibly be seen as less productive in their employers eyes, and be less likely to receive a promotion or salary increase in the future. I believe that only until schools are fully open and functioning again–and when the vaccine is readily available to everyone–that women will be able to have a chance of going back to the level of progress and success seen before the pandemic.

    1.https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-u-s-workers-have-lost-jobs-during-coronavirus-pandemic-there-are-several-ways-to-count-11591176601
    2.https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
    3.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/06/04/downturns-tend-to-reduce-gender-inequality-not-under-covid-19

  3. COVID-19 is having an impact on every aspect of daily economic life. With an over ten-year period of economic growth after the 2008 Recession, such an extensive period of growth is now coming to an end as the COVID-19 pandemic is coupled with an economic downturn. This begs the comparison of previous recessions with that of a COVID-19 induced or exacerbated one. The 2008 and the COVID-19 recessions shed light on responses to economic crises, help to analyze economic indicators, and anticipate future effects of downturns.

    The Great Recession was a severe downturn influenced by the housing market bust and financial instability. Recessions have similarities in affecting the same economic indicators, but otherwise can vastly differ in their causes, projection, and severity. For example, unemployment during the Great Recession in June 2009 was 9.5 percent. In the months after the recession, in October 2009, the unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent (1). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of April 2020, the unemployment rate has reached 10.4% (2). Recent measures most likely indicate a higher unemployment rate as the COVID-19 crisis continues and worsens. The state of joblessness necessitates a policy response in order to help the unemployed. More needs to be done to save jobs; this is especially important for the jobs that will survive the long-run. While unemployment is high in both scenarios, the difference always lies in the fact that 2008 was based on financial instability while COVID-19 is an outside factor. This may mean what helped joblessness in 2008 may not necessarily help today. The main questions here are how to limit the spread of COVID-19, how do we alleviate the effects of this recession through stimulus and policy actions, and lastly, what does this mean for the future?

    Consumer spending and confidence are, as a good example, indicators as to how people are responding to the economy. In the 2008 Recession, household spending decreased overall (3). Due to the nature of COVID-19 in limiting contact and promoting social distancing in order to combat the spread, consumer spending on services, similar to 2008, has taken a hard hit. As for responding to unemployment and loss of expenditures, it is important to assist households and businesses because economic downturns are very costly. Stimulus packages can keep businesses and households afloat. This is better for the economy in the long-run. There is a need for more assistance via stimulus because if we choose to let the economy recover on its own many people will suffer. COVID-19 will have long-run implications because many businesses will not survive closures, jobs and even certain industries will become obsolete due to the lack of need for them, and changes to the labor force will become apparent due to, for example, recent college graduates not transitioning into the work force as easily, or mothers taking on the role of educating their children remotely and thus unable to work on site. Therefore, COVID-19 economic responses require deliberate and strategic action.

    (1)
    https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2012/recession/

    (2) https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/LUR@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/USA

    (3)
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51706225

  4. In the past, we have seen the economy go through both recessions and expansions and this current situation today is one that we will recover from, however, the economy will see the repercussions of our COVID 19 management for a significant amount of time. With that being said not all industries will be hit in the same way, some may flourish whilst others will see a downturn in their fortunes. Big tech companies have seen an upturn in their fortunes and continue to expand and improve. (1) On the other side, the service industry has struggled and there is a risk that they could see more than just a short-term shock from this recession. (2) Some companies are now finding that they could benefit from employees staying home and are just as if not more productive. While this is beneficial to the company in terms of costs, it also causes a problem. Employees used to upkeep offices such as janitors will struggle to find work in this tight economy. (2) With 30% of the population thinking that the economy is in good shape it becomes evident that we are living in two different Americas. (3) Those who are still in work and flourishing are failing to see our shortcomings and neglecting those who are struggling. This economics recession will cause effects in the long run, jobs will shift to being more remote wherever possible and service jobs will see a significant decrease. A cure could be seen as a possible solution; however, this is unlikely. The economy is unlikely to return to where it was pre-COVID-19 in the short run and therefore is like to have a long-term effect on the economy, with some being positive and others negative.

    (1) https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-covid-19-will-change-the-nations-long-term-economic-trends-brookings-metro/

    (2) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html

    (3) https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/economy/economy-perception-pew-study/index.html

    (4) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/business/coronavirus-economic-forecast-shiller.html

  5. The implications of the COVID-19 crisis are frightening for all, with 11.5 million jobs lost since February of 2020; however, the effects of the pandemic are especially concerning in what they mean for mothers.

    About 27 million, roughly half, of essential workers are women working jobs that cannot be done remotely. On top of this, women with children in particular are finding it increasingly difficult to stay employed, due to the extreme shortage of child-care options available to them. According to the Washington Post article, titled “Coronavirus child-care crisis will set women back a generation,” one out of four women stated that their unemployment during the pandemic was due to an inability to provide child-care, while men report child-care as their reason for unemployment at half the rate of women.

    This problem has not been properly addressed yet by the US government, as the 675,000 child-care providers that are small businesses and employ 1.5 million workers have received only $3.5 billion back in March. This amount of funding was just a fraction of the emergency aid offered to airlines under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or Cares Act.

    The brunt of this child-care crisis is borne by the women of this country and it will be detrimental to those women who wish to have a successful, long-lasting career, while also raising a family. There have been great strides made in that more women have entered the workforce, attained a successful career and also have families. However, the depletion of child-care options for mothers combined with the fact that one-third of the parents in the workforce have children under 14 years of age who need child-care, leaves many women without a choice.

    There needs to be additional funding provided to child-care businesses, as without the support they provide to mothers in the workforce the economy could continue to lag behind due to the absence of the maternal figures in the workforce. In addition to this, women who opt out of the workforce will have to forgo the benefits that come with staying with an employer for the long-term, such as increases in pay and promotions.

    Sources used in my post (sorry I forgot to add them at the end of my original post:)

    1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/29/childcare-remote-learning-women-employment/

    2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/03/big-factor-holding-back-us-economic-recovery-child-care/

    3. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html

  6. Covid-19 has affected everyone in different ways for the last half a year, particularly college students. As many universities shut down and limit their in-person operations, student’s futures change directions. There was a survey of undergraduate students done by Arizona State University that shows multiple elements of the long term and short-term implications of COVID-19 on college students. The study found that thirteen percent of students have delayed their graduation, which impacts them in the short run. The long-term effect of recent graduates, which is more alarming, is that “about 40% have lost a job, internship, or job offer” (1). This creates a socioeconomic gap, where those low-income students were over fifty percent more likely to delay graduation (1). While delaying graduations and losing employment opportunities right out of school is bad, the long-term effects of this are worse. Trying to enter the job market with a 14.7% unemployment is a challenge even more difficult than in the Great Recession. CNBC states in an article that “Workers who graduate into a recession also report lower earnings, higher levels of student debt, and worse professional prospects” (2). The starting point in an individual’s career is usually an indicator of where they will end up. When people start lower than they expected, it may also negatively impact their overall lifetime income. These arguments present the downside of entering the workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    However, some skills make the current graduating students more prepared for the workforce than previous groups. The class of 2019 and 2020 have had a situation, unlike any other graduating classes. Their experience turned into a hybrid college experience. When COVID-19 hit, Zoom became an integral part of college, the gap between professors and students tightened. Students and professors had to adapt quickly to the new changes together and collaboration between the students and professors became more necessary. This concept is called managing up and allowed for students to become comfortable learning with their bosses or professors (3). Most businesses will never be the same after the pandemic is over, whether you like it or not, Zoom is likely going to be with us for a long time. Virtual professionalism is going to be a part of the business from here on out and these graduating students have experience in it. These soft skills will be an important tool for the graduating classes that could help them immeasurably in the long run (3). Nobody knows what the future holds for the graduating college students, but it is not all negatives as it may seem.

    https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/06/23/report-covid-19-has-hurt-college-students#:~:text=Lower%2Dincome%20students%20were%2055,%2Dincome%20students'%20expected%20GPAs.&text=The%20personal%20health%20and%20financial,’%20decisions%2C%20the%20report%20found.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/advice-for-new-grads-from-professionals-who-graduated-into-the-great-recession.html

    https://zapier.com/blog/recent-college-graduates-in-the-workforce/

  7. Past recessions in our country provide data about the recession, and perception of how the future recovery may look like. The difference between this recession and previous ones is that specific industries have been hit so hard with the adjustment to how people live in our world now. The pandemic forced businesses such as Wisconsin’s Rapids Mill to close due to almost forty percent decrease in demand for paper. Now with business adjusting to this pandemic it basically sped up the decline that the paper industry has already been in since the digital era emerged. Touch points for shoppers and customers everywhere have been adjusted to eliminate them(1). The long run effect on these industries such as the paper mill will have serious consequences in our economy such as elimination of jobs. The estimated supply chain in the Wisconsin paper industry is about 28.88 billion and employing over 95,000 workers(1). Now that this mill shutdown it affects all the business’s that use their services through the industry. The long run picture still has hope here with the right adapting and use for the mill there is a way to save it. Ideas such as changing the production of the mill from paper to another product such as plastic could possibly work, but government and charitable aid would be essential to start the project(1). Overall some industries such as paper now with this pandemic may not have any hope anymore, with this pandemic the way we live our lives is changed forever and this is one of the adjustments that society now is forced to make. Now more than ever change is needed by specific industries to maintain sustainability and not continue to close or fall into larger debt. If action is not taken soon then our economy will continue to struggle getting out of this current recession.
    (1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true

  8. The pandemic’s impact on the younger generation is undeniably here to stay, and the long-run implications may last for many years. Between February and April, we saw an unequal effect in the loss of jobs for the “highly exposed” sector (1). This sector includes low paying jobs such as restaurants and bars, retail, entertainment, and personal services. Nearly 50% of workers aged 16-24 lost their jobs, while 36% of workers aged 25-54 lost their job. For workers aged 16-25, the unemployment rate is 18.6%, compared to the national unemployment rate of 8.4%. In addition, this highly exposed sector tends to be dominated by those with less formal education (2). With this in mind, there are many different paths available for these workers aged 16-24, one of which would be investing in training and education. With all this being said, there is a clear need to support this sector of workers, especially aged 16-25.

    Rather than trying to force these employees to stay in their low skilled, low paying, and high risk jobs, we should invest our time in creating more pell grant programs to retrain and educate the workforce. According to a study done by the Urban Institute, many current mobility expenditures exclude low-income households, the same households that are supposed to be receiving this assistance (3). In 2006, the income difference between workers with a four year degree compared to those who did not finish high school was $50,000 (4).

    There is an overwhelming amount of data to prove that economic mobility is extremely dependent on the support and flexibility for pell grants and programs. These will allow younger workers to go back to school for a formal education, whether that be community college, trade school, or a four year institution. To protect this highly exposed sector, the federal government must step in and provide educational assistance to those who need it most.

    1. https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2020/barkin_20200824
    2. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/demographics-earnings-and-family-characteristics-of-workers-in-sectors-initially-affected-by-covid-19-shutdowns.htm
    3. http://webarchive.urban.org/publications/411610.html
    4. https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/alfresco/publication-pdfs/1001280-Promoting-Economic-Mobility-By-Increasing-Postsecondary-Education.PDF

  9. While the current recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental to every member of society, it is women who are soon to suffer the brunt of the viruses’ wrath. After the rise of feminism in the 1960’s, women began entering the realm of higher education in droves, with now nearly thirty percent out-earning their spouses as of 2015 (2). While equality of the sexes was nowhere near where it ought to be before COVID hit, women had begun to take their well-deserved stake in male-dominated professions. However, these days of home schooling and mass layoffs have hearkened back the days where women were largely expected to remain homemakers for the entirety of their adult lives. It is this expectation that may very well remain. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reinforces this by citing that on average, more women than men have been recently laid off due to the current pandemic (3)(1), and although a portion of these women do out-earn their spouses, the majority of them do not. In conjunction, while schools are still up and running, the online platform of day to day learning elicits the obvious need for a parent to stay home to aid in teachers’ efforts in educating their children. This equation leaves many women no choice but to forgo their jobs, if not their career entirely. Jointly, although the buzz circling about a possible COVID-19 vaccine sounds promising, it will take months, if not years, before it has been disseminated widely enough for the vast majority of Americans to receive it; a topic the New York Times explores at length (4). This once again leaves women stuck in their current domestic straitjacket. Due to the nature of our service-based economy, there has been a logical push for many professions to remain virtual indefinitely, further providing no out for women’s current plight.

    https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/04/9674125/women-losing-jobs-more-than-men-coronavirus

    https://www.npr.org/2015/02/08/384695833/what-happens-when-wives-earn-more-than-husbands

    https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/home.htm

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html?auth=link-dismiss-google1tap

  10. Whether COVID lasts for just a while longer or many more years to come, the effect that it has had on the economy will be felt in the long run undoubtedly. Everyone has felt the negative effects of this pandemic, it is the case that some feel it more than others. This can be seen in the wage/class disparities and how different groups of people move forward.
    Single parents, mostly women (especially minorities) are the most likely affected due to the hard decision of having to stay home and watch their kids due to lack of childcare/resources, among other things. However, it would most likely be those that lie in the lower class realm that has to make that sacrifice, as “essential workers – disproportionately women of color – are struggling to find child care that is safe for their children and families” (1). The wealthier a family was before the pandemic, the less strain they would feel now comparatively due to having the resources to have others taking care of their kids, or not have to worry about working a regular job so they would be able to do it themselves.
    To further highlight the wage gap and class division, it is estimated that the amount of rich will increase by 28% in the population, while the spending power will increase by 33% by the year 2030 (2). These projections allow there to be hope that although the economy is not in the best shape right now, it will bounce back.
    The effects of the pandemic will continue until there is a foolproof cure for it, meaning once a vaccine is proven to work then the country will slowly start going back to its original state. Although some markets are still standing strong, the country will be at a standstill until there is a cure (3).

    (1) https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/early-childhood/news/2020/08/12/489178/covid-19-pandemic-forcing-millennial-mothers-workforce/
    (2) https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/07/28/how-is-covid-19-affecting-americas-rich/
    (3) https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/when-will-economy-recover-from-coronavirus-shock/

  11. COVID-19, which reflects the problems of each country but also affects a lot of in the world. During COVID-19, people need to face different problems, which include family, jobs, and life.
    1). Firstly, families with children, especially young children. For young children, parents need to spend more time taking care of them than before. For women, they need to take care of their children while also working and doing housework. Maybe, their husband will help them to do some housework and take care of the children. But the time that we spend to do that two things were increased during COVID-19. For some single-parent families and pregnant mothers, they will become more stressed during that time. According to the information, we can see more frequently the ones to give up their jobs are women. The reason is the women get lower salaries or earning expectations than men. So, during the COVID-19, mostly to give up their job to take care of their family is women. When the COVID-19 ends, the important problem for women is “How cloud they get a job?”. The reason has this problem is, women give up their jobs a period of time, and then will forget many skills in their work. For the long-term, women get a job will become a “question”.
    2). Secondly, for different states, they will face different problems. For example, for some states with developed tourism industry like Hawaii, the economy of this state relies mostly on tourism. Because of COVID-19, the number of people travel will decrease and the economy of this state will be decreased. Or, for some states that have the lowest wage, like West Virginia, people get a job in this state will become less than other states. Because the wage is low, then people will choose to get a job at other the state which is the minimum wage to have higher than West Virginia.
    3). Third, in the United State, this is a country that has more service industries. As we can see the biggest impact is in Leisure and Hospitality in every state in the United State. During COVID-19, we could see the people who are getting a job in the “Accommodation Food Services industry” and “Arts, Entertainment and Recreation industry” the rate of loss of a job is very high. For example, as of July, we could see there were around 3.4 million people work in “Accommodation and Food Service” had lost their job. That is a very huge number, and that will cause a Recession, GDP decreased, and the Consumer Confidence Index decreased during that time.
    4). Finally, people will decrease the demand for “House”. Because some people will lose their job, then cause mortgage rate and pent-up were lower than the last few years. Also, the GDP in 2020 is the second quarter and has the lowest percentage after the 2008 recession.
    In conclusion, COVID-19 influence peoples’ life a lot. We find a way to solve COVID-19, but we still need a long time to recover the economy around the world.
    1) https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/07/26/covid-economy-unemployment-report-6-charts/5471545002/
    2) https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-State
    3) https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200630-how-covid-19-is-changing-womens-lives

  12. The U.S. economy has taken a massive blow from the Coronavirus. Any major recovery in the U.S. from this global pandemic is going to begin when the virus is controlled. Vaccines need to be made and we need an increased understanding of how the virus works. Those things an extended period of time so for the time being it is of utmost importance that businesses hire again. The root of our problem in this crisis is unemployment. During the Great Depression employment in manufacturing declined 67% (4) in which manufacturing made up a majority of the employment in the country prior and is one of the many reasons that made the Great Depression was so bad. In the current crisis we have the same problem but for different reasons and we’re going about recovering from it in the wrong way. As Elon Musk said in a fairly recent podcast commenting on the stimulus checks, “if you don’t make stuff there is no stuff” (1). If people can’t work there is no income coming in and, in the manufacturing/services sector, there is less to be sold. About 80% of manufacturers expect that the pandemic will have a negative impact on their business (2) including the laying off of employees and many already have. The reduction in jobs in the manufacturing industry is setting us back even further. Not only is unemployment rising but there is less goods being made that the stimulus checks are intended to be used on. The same applies to the services sector of our economy which more dramatically accounted for 67% of GDP last year (3). If there are less people employed in the services sector, then there are less services to be provided to the people with stimulus checks. In the manufacturing industry it is hard to keep employees working remotely because the work is hands on. On the other hand, many businesses in the service sector have come to realize that working virtually from home is something that is rather doable for the time being. In fact, Twitter, for example, has realized that employing people from the comfort of their homes is not all that bad and is now letting its employees work from home indefinitely. Even though Twitter is more of a tech-based business this realization may have made set the example for other businesses to follow. There should be a push for service-based businesses to keep people employed and hire more people for the time being. The focus should not be to put money into the pockets of the unemployed. It should be to put the unemployed back into work in order to produce goods and services for people to stimulate the economy with whilst consequentially putting money in their pockets.

    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR4j3WttbdU&ab_channel=EvanCarmichael @9:15
    2. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/coronavirus-impacts-industrial-manufacturing.html
    3. https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/citi-2018/the-american-economy-is-experiencing-a-paradigm-shift/2008/
    4. https://www.encyclopedia.com/economics/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/industry-effects-great-depression#:~:text=Employment%20in%20manufacturing%20declined%20to,term%20unemployment%20among%20industrial%20workers.

  13. When the virus first truly emerged in the US consciousness, in March 2020, with the cancellation of the Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder Basketball game and Harvard University moving classes online, it was assumed that the Coronavirus would be a temporary ordeal. It was assumed that, at the time, the Federal Government would shepherd through a competent response to combat the threat of the virus. With that, many individuals and businesses assumed that the threat of the virus would be reduced in the coming months, so they were willing to make sacrifices to prevent the spread of the virus in the hopes of resuming normal life. Yet, the Economic pain was still present on both ends, and the Federal Government recognizing as such, passed the CARES Act, which provided broad stimulus to individuals as well as a multitude of American industries (1).
    It has now been about 6 months since the shutdowns first occurred, and not only has the virus barely improved from what it was before, economically the outlook as worsened in response. While many think the economy is doing fine, it is quite far from that (2). Around 880,000 people have claimed jobless benefits as of September 3rd (3), as the pandemic continues to rage on, with overall 11.5 million jobs lost since February (4). The share of job losses has disproportionately hit the service industry, as the white-collar shift to a “Work from Home” culture. With that, comes a looming eviction crisis.
    While there was a Federal Mandate to halt evictions, that has since expired (1). Now, an estimated 30-40 million are at risk are at risk for being evicted (5). With job and wage losses due to the pandemic there is quite a possibility of a long-term housing crisis for many of the most vulnerable populations in the country.
    The reason people say the Economy seems to be doing fine is that the true crash hasn’t happened yet, which largely involves the availability and affordability of housing. Eviction mandates federally and locally have prevented a lot of damage from happening to the vulnerable poor of the country. However, by and large they have gone to the wayside.
    Long term, however, the combined job losses and evictions will set back the economy on its road to recovery big time. College graduates, families, and women broadly have been feeling the effects of the virus, as have all demographics, but those three have been feeling it more so. This is especially compounded by those women, families, and college graduates on the bottom of the economic ladder.
    The job loss and eviction moratoriums for the lower classes put those demographics on unstable footing. College students and women unable to enter a job market/forced to exit a job market wrecked with losses, families and women potentially going homeless, and all three not getting any assistance in their situations.
    Those two factors combined will lead a lot of people’s overall earnings and wealth diminish, as they struggle to get out of the hole set primarily by the virus. However, that does not absolve the government of its responsibility. Besides the CARES Act at the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Government has stalled in providing a further response to the pandemic. Many other people not covered by the initial act, like college students, and many other industries not covered adequately by the act are left to dry.
    Even if the vaccine comes and people are inoculated against the virus, that will only do so much for economic recovery. Lower class people and various industries will need continued aid and assistance until they are able to get back to where they once were. Only then, once that happens will the economy reach a higher point.

    1) https://www.natlawreview.com/article/summary-cares-act
    2) https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/economy/economy-perception-pew-study/index.html
    3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/03/some-881000-people-claimed-jobless-benefits-last-week-labor-market-continues-feel-pain-pandemic/?tidr=a_breakingnews&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-breaking-news%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar
    4) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    5) https://www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/the-covid-19-eviction-crisis-an-estimated-30-40-million-people-in-america-are-at-risk/

  14. Coronavirus has hit the US harder in several ways than any other developed country in the world. The most obvious data being the sheer number of cases the US has achieved due to the tardiness of governmental intervention. But on the other side of that, the amount of lost jobs and the significant damage that does to a tremendous amount of people has put the US economy in very murky waters. Nothing like this has ever occurred in the US and I think the damage done is going to have much larger repercussions than expected.
    With 11.5 Million people losing jobs since February(1) the number of lost jobs due to the coronavirus shut down has been record-breaking. But as stated this has had more impact than anticipated. More than half of Americans rely on their profession as a provider of health insurance(2) meaning that the majority of the people who lost their jobs due to a pandemic are also losing the insurance to go to the hospital. This further throws the US into another problem of increased death counts. The more deaths there are the more scared the average American is going to be leading to less spending and a slower recovery.
    Another big issue the pandemic has exposed is the lack of necessity for office space. With many jobs forced to go completely home-based, it is apparent to many companies that maybe the 6 story office they are paying for isn’t necessarily for maintained productivity. At first, it sounds great, not having to wear a suit to the office every day and whatnot, but the problem arises when you think about the maintenance and janitorial staff. What are they going to do? In the article “The Service economy meltdown” it states “If white-collar America doesn’t return to the office, service workers will be left with nobody to serve.” So yet again there are secondary waves of repercussion causing even more job loss thus further slowing down the path to recovery.
    The United States has a number of issues that need to be sorted out if there is going to be a chance at significant recovery in the near future. From the current state of the union, progress at the moment is stagnant or even still getting worse. Policy changes and time are the only things that will tell.

    (1)https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    (2)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_the_United_States#:~:text=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20with,in%202017%20(92.1%20percent).

  15. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an economic recession due to many government policies that shut businesses down or limited business and personal interactions that limit the spread of COVID-19. Since the US has not experienced a pandemic in over a century and due to the fact The Global Health Security and Biodefense unit disbanded in 2018, the US was unprepared to deal with COVID.
    In order for the economy to stably and consistently recover, the virus must be controlled or eliminated. If a vaccine is found, the US will not immediately recover due to the large geographic and population size. Many Americans will be hard to find, because of rising homelessness and geographic problems. If the government does not distribute the vaccine itself and relies on private healthcare, then the vaccine will trickle down the economic ladder. This will put more pressure on the middle and lower class to return to the workforce and may cause another spike in COVID cases. If the government distributes the vaccine itself, then a lot of money, labor, and time will be used to distribute it. Even though providing jobs to help with distribution will help unemployment rates, it is unlikely that the economy will quickly recover even with a vaccine. The US is predicted to have two rounds of vaccines because producing and distributing over 300 million vaccines will take a lot of money and time.
    The pandemic has decreased job security in America because of the lack of money flow and many businesses had to shrink or shut down permanently. Also, many businesses realized that some jobs and sectors are not useful to the company, due to the creation of “essential v. non-essential workers.” Other businesses will turn to automation to avoid shutting down production in the event of another pandemic. In the short-run, eliminating these sectors and jobs will increase unemployment, decrease consumption and investment, and will lead to a small dip in the economy. However, in the long-run, frictional unemployment will force people to re-educate themselves and re-enter the economy in a new sector. Automation and having a large number of people support growing industries increases overall productivity and GDP. However, this will not happen unless the economy balances long enough for businesses to bring in enough revenue to restructure or unless the government intervenes.
    The government needs to provide more stimuli during and after the pandemic. Rising homelessness and debt lowers consumption and investment rates as more people save their money. Based on research from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), if the COVID pandemic follows historical pandemic trends, then the US will experience a sustained period of low real interest rates for several decades. To avoid an inflationary spiral the government will either lower interest rates to incentivize businesses to invest or give out loans or relief grants to revitalize businesses like they did after The Great Recession. Since America is a service-based country, fiscal stimuli supporting businesses is the most efficient way to stabilize the economy.

    1)https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/policy-brief-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-women-en.pdf?la=en&vs=1406
    2)https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/08/28/covid-19-invisible-victims-homeless-people/5636938002/
    3)https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/health/vaccine-not-end-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html
    4)https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-entire-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M
    5)https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2020/06/long-term-economic-impact-of-pandemics-jorda.htm

  16. Throughout the history of the United States, it’s apparent that business cycles are always different, with the drivers of those same business cycles influenced by the industries which are contributing to our GDP. Growing up in Pittsburgh, I read stories about the once thriving steel industry, which ultimately collapsed during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. Pittsburgh, like many cities throughout the mid-west grew in a different economic era, but was forced to change from manufacturing to a service-oriented economy due to price competition from steel producers from other countries and an oil embargo. A reference to the Wisconsin paper mill industry is an example of technology replacing industry and displacing jobs. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated change in our economy, change that was already happening, and change that was not going to stop.
    The best example of the acceleration of change is within what is called “brick and mortar” retail, or stores that we commonly visit like JC Penney and Macy’s. Visiting your local mall is changing, and for some communities, coming to an end. The number of retailers filing for bankruptcy has increased over the last few months, accelerating due to the change in buying patterns. Twenty-four major retailers have filed for bankruptcy protection since March of 2020, which is included within an astounding six thousand individual store closures during the same period of time. Iconic names such as Neiman Marcus and Lord & Taylor are in that group, with more certain to fall victim to both COVID-19 and our changing economy over the coming months. That seems like a large number, but in my opinion is the result of the rapid change in social patterns, to include social distancing and work at home strategies, leading to the demise of an industry that was already in decline. Will “brick and mortar” retail go away? My answer is No! Do I like ordering online? Yes. Do I still like visiting retail stores? Yes. It will just be different. Smaller stores and few locations will likely be the norm.
    A reduction in physical retail locations will lead to higher unemployment, with a majority of those service jobs not replaced, but displaced. Many of those same employees who were working in the retail industries were young and likely pursuing a college degree or only a high school graduate. What is their future? Retail was once a career-oriented profession, but even the retailers who are succeeding require technical skills, such as Best Buy, Verizon, or AT&T. Income disparity is going to continue to increase as unskilled workers have limited options in today’s technology influenced world. This change in the economy was already happening, but COVID-19 magnified the effects and accelerated the change.

    (1) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    (2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true
    (3) https://thinksetmag.com/insights/covid-brick-mortar-retail
    https://www.jckonline.com/editorial-article/covid-19-accelerates-bankruptcies/
    (4) https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-steel-crisis-of-the-1980s-57751

  17. The COVID-19 pandemic has had far reaching effects for the US economy and its citizens that we will never truly recover from. Some of the hardest hit groups are women and lower class Americans. The recession resulting from the pandemic will only increase the disparity and inequality these groups already experience.

    Though we have seen a great amount of progress with gender equality in the past century, traditional genders roles are still visible today. With schools, summer camps, and after school centers closing down due to the virus, parents now have to look after their children during the workdays. Typically, this burden will fall disproportionately on the mother, who may be forced to cut back her work hours or may quit her job all together. One out four women who became unemployed due to the pandemic reported “it was because of a lack of child care – twice the rate among men” (1). When women drop out of the workforce they miss opportunities for raises and promotions, and as research shows, will have a harder time returning to work. All of this combined has the potential to set women back a generation (1).

    The service industry was one of the hardest hit during the recession. Restaurant, hotel, and travel industries have slowed significantly, while other industries such as janitorial services that rely heavily on offices and schools have practically come to a halt. Jobs in services industries are mostly occupied by those without college educations and offer lower salaries on average. Contrastingly, higher-income workers are easily able to continue work from home from their computers. While the unemployment rate for those in government and salaried positions is at about 5.6%, the unemployment rate for the leisure and hospitality industry is almost 4 times as much at 21.3% (2). Even with the help of stimulus packages the wealth disparity will only get worse in a country that already has one of the highest rates worldwide. Even after the pandemic is over there is no guarantee that these jobs will return, as some companies are finding that employees are more productive working from home (3). In the long run these groups will eventually recover, but they will never return to where they could have been.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/29/childcare-remote-learning-women-employment/
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-vs-private-covid-layoffs-11599606956
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html

  18. The pandemic-induced recession served as a looking glass for the future of markets. The tech sector was able to withstand an economic shutdown while becoming the biggest winner during the pandemic. The tech giants (Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet) were able to rally the major indexes after the market bottomed out in late march. Pair the market rally with an extremely favorable rates environment implemented by the fed, and the economy began to recover. The jobs numbers during the summer months began to rise and beat the expectations of analysts. While the U.S is on a path of recovery, there is still an extremely high level of uncertainty. If the pandemic had a concrete date of finishing, then companies and analysts would have a clear and bullish view of the future. Unfortunately, there seems to be no end in sight of this “new normal” ever ending. This high level of uncertainty the world is feeling is causing many large companies to completely reel back guidance, as they have no idea if normal business operations will resume in 3 months or 3 years.

    I do not think more stimulus is necessary to facilitate economic recovery. According The Economist, less than half of the money received from the stimulus was spent and a third was saved for a rainy day. This is because consumer preference has changed and people are going out less. Less going out means less spending. I think we are headed for a year or two of being stuck in economic purgatory. The only way we can get back to business as usual is if people aren’t scared of the virus anymore (achievable by either a vaccine or herd immunity).

    Students have been impacted greatly by COVID-19. According to Pharmacy Times, a study shows that there is an increase in students self reporting anxiety and depression. The study also found that anxiety levels for students only decreased slightly after final exams, as they were still required to follow the stay at home orders. Forcing every college student in America to learn online will have severe impacts on how ready and skilled the future work force will be.

    COVID-19 and our response to it will have huge implications on the long term future. Let’s say the world is hit by another pandemic next decade, will the U.S implement draconian tactics once again to stop the spread of the virus? Will another blanket shut down of the entire economy become necessary again? The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide during this pandemic, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis according to the Wall Street Journal. If we are faced with this problem again, we will most likely face it in the same way, if not, even more bluntly.

    The shutdown of the economy has essentially been a shutdown on life. It has created extremely severe problems regarding markets, the economy as a whole, consumer sentiment, and mental health. If things are not resolved soon, I believe the long term effects will be even more grim.

    Sources

    1) https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/02/how-did-americans-use-their-coronavirus-stimulus-cheques
    2) https://www.pharmacytimes.com/news/covid-19-pandemic-has-major-impact-on-mental-health-of-college-students
    3) https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419

  19. Government needs to provide more fiscal stimulus to try to maintain unemployment rates and inequality from rising until the economy recovers but provide the aid in a different structure than before.
    Individuals are more likely to save their money during the recession in the case of an emergency later on, when the economy needs more money to circulate (1). During the beginning of the pandemic, Congress released aid packages to all Americans depending on the family size (2). From previous recessions, it is recommended that the aid packages towards social benefits must be released as soon as possible to help maintain everything as much as possible (3). Yet due to our dual political system, some individuals and businesses are still awaiting aid (2). In previous recessions, the U.S. have always recovered but with different recovery times (4).
    This ongoing recession is called to be the worst recession since the Great Recession. I would expect the recovery time to be longer than what we’ve seen before. The stimulus should be released to disadvantaged parts of the country and our population but also it must be released fast. By disadvantaged parts of the country and population I mean businesses that have employees and are about to close due to the pandemic, especially child care. Due to child care centers closing up many parents are forced to pick between their families and their jobs/careers, that would be hard to return back to it if they were to leave now (5). Majority of U.S. businesses are service based that have seen a hard hit due to the nature of the virus. Businesses, as child care, should be aided to not only stay open but uphold the hygiene required so customers feel safer to use their services. Stimulus should be geared towards individuals that are struggling to stay above the water with little to no savings. Stimulus should be put towards social benefits to target specific areas and slow down the inequality gaps from raising. For example, increasing housing assistance so there is not a rise in homelessness and evictions, assistance in utilities programs, SNAP and such.

    (1)https://www.cnbc.com/select/how-to-spend-second-stimulus-check/
    (2)https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/politics/coronavirus-stimulus-relief-money/index.html
    (3)https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/fiscal-stimulus-needed-to-fight-recessions#:~:text=Fiscal%20stimulus%20should%20be%20implemented,workers%20due%20to%20weak%20demand.
    (4)https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/two-recessions-two-recoveries/
    (5)https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/29/childcare-remote-learning-women-employment/

  20. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a clear and obvious impact on businesses, both small and large. While many assume that things will eventually return to normal, it has become increasingly evident that certain aspects of business practice are changing for good. In a post-pandemic world, which covid strategies will corporations continue to utilize, and which will be abandoned as soon as it is safe to do so? Polling data from multiple studies has indicated the majority of people forced to work from home during the pandemic believe productivity has either risen or remained the same for themselves and their coworkers. In fact, a study by Deloitte which surveyed over 1,000 UK residents found that 61% of desk-based workers preferred staying at home (2). Even more astounding, a study by KPMG found that 79% of American workers employed by companies with over 1000 employees believed working from home has improved both the productivity and quality of their work. For many companies, it may be advantageous to consider implementing work-from-home strategies long-term. Such strategies could allow companies to save overhead costs by downsizing to smaller offices and spending less on office supplies. The reciprocal affect this could have on other industries, such as office supply companies or construction firms, would be interesting to follow.
    While businesses may consider employing this strategy, other polling data is giving companies more to consider. Deloitte’s study found that 31% of workers felt they were more collaborative while operating in their traditional workplace environment, and 45% enjoyed the social interaction they used to experience. KPMG’s study found that roughly one-third (34%) of employees have experienced worsening relationships with their coworkers since they began working from home (3). Beyond employee relations, companies must also consider the cyber-security concerns out of office work presents. A recent study by Sectigo polled 500 IT professionals from large corporations (greater than 1000 employees) and found that 86% reported continuing challenges in managing digital identity and hardware, including devices and company processes (1). The same study found that IT professionals were most concerned with phishing/malicious emails (40%), insecure wifi (40%), and BYOD devices (28%) as being the biggest threats to at-home work. Companies will be forced to manage these security concerns if they are going to continue mandating their employees to work outside the office.
    Moving forward, business execs will be forced to make important decisions in determining the long-term practices and structure of their companies. At the forefront of this decision making will be productivity, worker satisfaction, and security concerns. The companies that can best manage all three will emerge as the front runners of their industry.

    1. https://www.techrepublic.com/article/increase-in-productivity-and-risk-since-the-covid-19-lockdown/
    2. https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consulting/articles/working-during-lockdown-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity-and-wellbeing.html
    3. https://www.dbusiness.com/daily-news/kpmg-survey-work-productivity-and-quality-improved-during-covid-19/

  21. The COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for American citizens. Despite efforts to contain it’s spread over 179,000 people have died and many thousands more have contracted the virus. While the damage COVID has inflicted on individual health should not be understated, even more troubling is the strain the pandemic has and will cause to the economy as a whole. The pandemic has forced over 40 million people to file for unemployment benefits and has crushed the small business many of which will never recover. So far 2% of all small businesses in America have permanently closed. An additional 34% of small businesses have either had to pay reduced rent or delay payments. Large corporations are also cutting back. The retail giant Kohl’s is laying off 15% of its corporate workforce and United Airlines has announced they plan to lay off over 16,000 employees if federal aid runs out October 1st as is scheduled. People and businesses alike are both desperately in need of assistance and for months politicians have not been able to agree on what additional help should be provided. In a rare step into the fiscal arena, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has recommended more stimulus is necessary to combat the loss of personal incomes and the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Charles Evans, says “A lack of action or an inadequate one presents a very significant downside risk to the economy today.” Another monetary response could be ineffective at spurring the economy because of a mixture of fear and forced lockdowns prevent a large portion of the economy from making use of the lower interest rates. Instead, a fiscal stimulus package could help keep the flow of money going and prevent people from having to make radical changes, such as leaving a city or permanently closing a business, that would hurt the ability of the economy to return to pre-COVID levels once it becomes possible.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/497519-more-than-100000-small-businesses-have-permanently
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-layoffs-furloughs-hospitality-service-travel-unemployment-2020#united-airlines-announced-on-september-2-that-it-will-furlough-16370-employees-once-federal-aid-expires-on-october-1-4
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-fed-officials-are-begging-for-more-stimulus-from-lawmakers-11600005600

  22. With all time low inflation rates (BBC), even in the face of the Government’s over $3 trillion in aid due to the pandemic, you would expect to see your dollar going just about as far as it did at the beginning of the year or even a year ago. But the fact is thanks to these policies the dollar index has fallen 0.3%, which is a measure that compares the strength of the dollar to a basket of other currencies.(Business Insider, Sardana) Not to say that these policies don’t hold their value and have helped many, because they have. Simply we should be weary of this with interest rates around the globe in most developed countries being so close to zero if not below.(AP news, Rugaber) This is scary because our solution in 2008 through LSAP was to lower the interest rate to stimulate the economy, but now how can we do that with little to no buffer between us and 0% interest rates. The article just came out today that the Fed was seeking inflation over 2% now (AP news, Rugaber), and this is in an effort to keep interest rates near zero. With the rapid stimulus money being pumped out, the shock that will hit the economy when the realization that a lot of jobs are permanently gone, and the weakening of our currency relative to close competing currencies, I believe we are currently on the path towards a hyper-inflation scenario. The biggest thing keeping this from becoming a reality is how much foreign currency is already tied up in U.S. debt. If you picture the U.S. as a bank and all the debt of ours owned by foreign/ independent entities as our holdings; we prevent this flight on our bank by tying up our debt in lots of different aged securities and treasuries so it can be all called in upon at once. That does not however grant us immunity, because if the trend gets set to divest in the U.S. and its dollar, then it will likely only be a matter of time until we enter into some sort of hyper-inflation scenario.

    Sources:

    1. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54173658

    2. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/markets-dollar-falls-fed-decision-gold-rises-2020-9-1029594422#

    3. https://apnews.com/be741aefe99dea470a504c74b67700da

  23. The fiscal authorities need to add more stimulus to the economy. Congress has already authorized over $3 trillion in spending to help with the negative effects from COVID-19. (1) Between emergency loans to struggling businesses and stimulus checks to households this stimulus has helped lessen the severity of the recession due to COVID-19. The recession and negative effects on the economy is still very prevalent as the GDP has dropped dramatically (in the past two quarters the GDP has dropped from $21.75 trillion to $19.49 trillion) (2) and the unemployment is at 8.4% (3).

    The additional fiscal stimulus will continue to support people and businesses to stay afloat during the recession. And with the weird circumstance that COVID-19 has created means that businesses are restricted to open. With these restrictions in place it is very difficult for a business to turn a profit or even stay open. During regular times many people and businesses would not be restricted like they are now. Most businesses are not able to open to full capacity if allowed to open at all. And many people are not going out to businesses they would normally go to because of the fear of COVID-19. Between retail trade, food and drinking places these industries employ nearly 26 million Americans. (4) To combat the loss of jobs and to keep afloat Americans that are looking for jobs there should be another wave of fiscal stimulus. The fiscal stimulus should include similar spending by the congress that they have previously done. And focus on helping struggling business and individuals who have lost their job. Another reason for more fiscal stimulus for small businesses is because many consumers are buying from big brands instead of there local and/or small businesses because in these uncertain times they want a supplier who will stay afloat.

    (1) https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-spending-pushed-u-s-june-budget-gap-to-864-billion-treasury-says-11594663634
    (2) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
    (3) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
    (4) https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/27/young-workers-likely-to-be-hard-hit-as-covid-19-strikes-a-blow-to-restaurants-and-other-service-sector-jobs/

  24. The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted some of the businesses that had been on the decline for years now. Various super businesses that have been thriving during this crisis, can be contrasted to various businesses that have been around for over a century, that are finally being forced to close their doors. People know that the market is shifting with it’s consumer needs and its technological operations, but the pandemic has made these shifts concrete in the sense that those who were already seeing issues operating in the market, have been forced to shut down operations entirely. It has been referred to as “Darwinism”, in the sense that the strongest companies only become more successful, and the weakest businesses are being weeded out by this unprecedented situation.
    A specific industry is the paper mill industry in Wisconsin, which is seeing concluding results to years of declining demand. The paper industry has seen declining for over a decade even before the coronavirus, it just accelerated it dramatically. Demand for paper fell 38 percent year-over-year in April of 2020, when the shutdowns were first announced. The closing was abrupt and made sense financially, but it was hundreds of mill workers that beared the cost of the closing. The effects to the industry are more than itself though. Effects can be seen throughout the supply chain, in the loggers and truckers, that are directly affected by the closing of paper mills.
    There will definitely be long term repercussions from the virus and the choices that it forces business owners to make. It will accelerate the shift to more online work and in the process, destroy hundreds of businesses that cannot keep up with the changing demands of society. The number of businesses permanently closed is starting to become larger than ones that are temporarily closed. The longer the pandemic is still wreaking havoc throughout the country, the more permanent closures we can expect to see. The paper business is just one example of countless markets that are slowly coming to an end, changing the U.S. economy as we know it.

    Sources:

    1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/23/permanent-business-closures-yelp/
    2). https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true
    3) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/politics/coronavirus-economy-shutdown.html
    4). http://investor.versoco.com/2020-06-09-Verso-Announces-Necessary-Actions-to-Offset-Unprecedented-Market-Decline-Due-to-COVID-19

  25. The actions by monetary and fiscal authorities along with the response by consumers will have a long-term effect on the United States economy in the long run. The PCE (personal consumption expenditure) has fallen roughly 20% between February and April (1). On April 13th the IRS directly deposited the first round of stimulus payments to 80 million eligible Americans in order to reverse the pullback in consumption (2). Looking at the change in the PCE graph, personal consumption spending has made a steep uptick from its V bottom, rising 14% above its V bottom.

    With consumption dropping to never before seen levels in the United States it was almost mandatory that the government stimulate consumers in a way to keep the economy running, depositing cash was the quickest and most sensible way for the federal government to stimulate consumer spending.

    Although the first stimulus seemed to work, we have not studied how effective those stimulus checks were, nor do we know how the recipients spent them.

    Another round of stimulus does not seem needed at the time. Consumers are starting to return to normal levels of consumption which can keep the economy from collapsing. Along with the first round of stimulus, consumers are starting to return to normal activities just in new socially distanced ways. Americans are continuing to be optimistic about the disease being mitigated or resolved soon while others are acting as if the disease is not a present problem. The Trump administration just released a COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategy that could have the vaccine available within the next coming months (3).

    The continuous wearing of mask, voluntary vaccination and the loosening of social distancing after a slowdown in cases should naturally get consumers back to spending without having to implement another round of a government stimulus package. In order to make all of this happen business shutdowns need to be lifted in order to give consumers the opportunity to return to their pre-covid levels of consumption expenditure.

    (1)https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mJz

    (2)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/trump-says-coronavirus-vaccine-may-be-ready-within-four-weeks

    (3) https://www.aarp.org/money/taxes/info-2020/irs-timeline-to-send-stimulus

  26. The aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly leave a resounding mark on the American economy for the foreseeable future. Initial shutdowns led to millions of Americans losing their jobs and many small businesses being forced to close their doors for good. According to the Wall Street Journal, “data from the US Labor Department is shown to report layoffs ranging from 20-40 million. Depending on how you count it you’re talking about something like a quarter of all U.S jobs being disrupted by the pandemic.” (1) Without regular income, many Americans struggle to provide for their families. The 2020 Financial Planning Survey by First National Bank of Omaha found that 53 percent of Americans do not have an emergency fund and 49 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. (2) Furthermore, a 2019 report conducted by the Federal Reserve regarding economic well-being of American households found that 40 percent of U.S. adults would not be able to a cover a $400 dollar emergency with cash, savings or a credit card charge that they would be able to quickly repay. (3) Without continued fiscal support, many Americans will continue to suffer the backlash that the pandemic has brought. The further allocation of funds for unemployment benefits and other various types of stimuli will give many American adults the critical financial support that they need to continue to carry out their lives in a feasible manner.

    1) https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-u-s-workers-have-lost-jobs-during-coronavirus-pandemic-there-are-several-ways-to-count-11591176601
    2) https://www.bizjournals.com/bizwomen/news/latest-news/2020/02/four-in-10-workers-living-paycheck-to-paycheck.html?page=all
    3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/17/breakdown-what-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-looks-like/

  27. With Covid-19 running rampant across the globe, there are many different outlooks and theories as to what the future impact of this pandemic will be. Ideas vary, but there is one clear constant: that Covid-19 is detrimental to our societies and economies. What is not focused on enough, is how the negative effects from this outbreak will disproportionately affect the working class.
    It has been approximately six months since the pandemic took ahold of the US with its iron grip, and in that time unemployment has shot from (1) 6.2 million Americans (3.8%) to over 20.5 million Americans (13%). This statistic alone is concerning, but when you take into account what kind of jobs are being impacted the most, the reality of how harmful this pandemic is to the working class truly becomes apparent. (2) According to AARP, the number one most impacted sector of jobs was service workers, with around 34% laid off, and 43% with reduced hours and/or pay. This sector covers a broad range of jobs, from food servers to security guards to janitors. This sector is also on the lower end in terms of average annual income, meaning that those already struggling to make ends meet are now also more harshly affected by the pandemic. To make matters worse, these lower-income individuals have minimal amounts of savings, and with the US government taking little action to help financially, the outlook for those unable to find a new job almost immediately is undeniably grim. Finally, the working-class is much less likely to be able to afford any health care needed during this pandemic.
    So, what does this mean for the future of our economy? What should be done in the future to prevent such a catastrophe from occurring again? It is no doubt that the economy will recover, but how it recovers and adapts is in question. To assume that the economy/society will go back to the way things were before the pandemic is not only a foolish belief, but a dangerous one. Change is important, and this pandemic is showing us every pitfall in our economic system. One major change is the perception of the wealthy. (3) In the past, the wealthy were often viewed as those who had earned their place at the top, and the lower class tended to blame themselves for their lack of wealth. In today’s climate, this perspective is changing drastically. The top 1% are thriving as America’s poor wallows in the fallout of Covid, and the poor are all too aware of this. This will most likely lead to a shift in policies in the future, with an emphasis on taxing the wealthy at a much higher rate, and more financial support for the lower class. America’s healthcare system may also be called into question, with a push for universal healthcare, or some hybrid form of free-market and subsidized healthcare. One thing is for certain, our economy and society must adapt and grow from this catastrophe, or we will find ourselves in a similar situation in the future.

    1. https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/04/21/about-half-of-lower-income-americans-report-household-job-or-wage-loss-due-to-covid-19/
    2. https://www.aarp.org/work/job-search/info-2020/coronavirus-occupation-job-loss.html
    3. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-class-war-just-beginning/609919/
    4. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/03/27/class-and-covid-how-the-less-affluent-face-double-risks/

  28. The COVID pandemic has already left “long-run” implications on the US economy: failing businesses, skyrocketing unemployment, and reduced consumer economic activity will affect the economy for years after a vaccine is released, and the less money you have, the harder you will be hit. According to the EPI, “scarring” is long-lasting damage to the economy that results from a recession such as the COVID pandemic. They find increased unemployment affects a family’s ability to provide a supportive learning environment for their child, and disrupts college savings.1 Negative impacts on youth set back an economy for an extended period because they are the next generation of workers. If they are less educated and skilled, our future workforce will be less productive. Before the pandemic began, Brookings reported in January that about 44% of workers in the US already earned barely enough to live on.2 These are the people that are being hit the hardest during this recession. The NYT reported that 39% of workers in households making $40,000 or less lost work.3 People in this situation do not have the recommended six months of savings to cover expenses. Jobs that require high school education or below are less likely to have the ability to work from home than jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree. The same NYT article points out that those making over $100,000 per year only saw a 13% job loss. The COVID pandemic and recession will continue to increase the wealth inequality in the US, as well as continue other current trends.

    The world will not be as changed as some people may think, rather some current trends will be accelerated. Tech companies such as Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft who were already growing quickly before the pandemic will come out of this stronger than ever. In Q2 of 2020, Amazon was projected to generate revenue of $81.56 billion but blew that number out of the water bringing in a massive $88.9 billion. Their earnings-per-share of $10.3 is astronomical compared to the $1.74 estimate.4 Pre-COVID trends such as autonomy, working from home, and working in the cloud will continue to exponentially grow throughout and after the pandemic concludes. Individuals and businesses that can take advantage of the current market conditions can benefit from these uncertain times.

    Sources:
    https://www.epi.org/publication/bp243/

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/01/08/low-unemployment-isnt-worth-much-if-the-jobs-barely-pay/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/business/economy/coronavirus-jobless-unemployment.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/amazon-amzn-earnings-q2-2020.html

  29. When Covid-19 entered the Unites States on January 2020, we experienced a short and very steep recession. 2) With 11.5 million jobs lost since January, nothing like this has been seen since the Great Recession. Covid-19 caused a skyrocket in unemployment and the economy came to a halt. 1) A jaw dropping 31.7% of the economy went into lockdown. This forced the United states to adapt by passing a stimulus check to people out of work and forcing many employees to work from home.
    Congress passed a $2 trillion stimulus package for relief to the US economy. 3) This package provides help to individuals, small businesses, big corporations, hospitals and public health, federal safety net, state and local government, and education. This stimulus package was very necessary but did not satisfy some of those at risk. However, if a person were to have no savings and just lost their job, $1200 will not be enough to provide for themselves when finding another job is uncertain. Furthermore, small businesses and education were uprooted by this pandemic without proper funding to adapt. Education should require more funding to adapt to the digital times. Without proper funding and equipment, students are at a disadvantage if they do not have the tools and skills to succeed. Therefore, there should be a second stimulus package with funding that accommodates these factions of life.
    One aspect of this pandemic that is here to stay is people working from home. When state and local governments began issuing ordinances, many businesses, if they could, sent a large fraction of the workforce to work digitally elsewhere. We will only see this trend rise as the world becomes more digital. This is a win-win for employers and employees because it costs less for the employers and now the employees are not tied to a rigid schedule. This shift in the work force was always coming, Covid-19 only acted as a catalyst.

    Citations:
    1) Cullen, T. (2020, August 27). Second-quarter GDP plunged by worst-ever 31.7% as economy went into lockdown. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/us-gdp-q2-2020-second-reading.html
    2) Porter, E. (2020, September 04). The Service Economy Meltdown. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    3) Snell, K. (2020, March 26). What’s Inside The Senate’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Package. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package

  30. During our most recent economic contraction, the COVID19 pandemic has resulted in the United States and many other countries output being below its potential. The Fed, in response performed numerous surprising regulatory acts including small loans to the public and passing a $3+ trillion stimulus which will have many harmful long-term effects on the economy. Though these acts may seem beneficial at first, specifically in the short run, these fiscal acts could potentially be extremely dangerous in the long run due to possible hyperinflation. How high can we inflate our dollar before it becomes worthless? What rate does our dollar go down in present and future value with the printing of these trillions of dollars? We have printed enough money, we have accelerated our inflation in a substantial way, and this a growth which we do not want to continue. This economic turmoil is not simply limited to the Fed printing money, it is also seen in families and specially college graduates, who now face the burden of having less money available to spend(consume), resulting in manufactures producing less as they understand that they will sell less, which results in the GDP of countries rapidly decreasing across the globe. These consumers in specific; families and college grads have a fraction of what they would have normally been able to spend, and these again have major potential long term economic impacts. An additional element that COVID brings to the economy is the affect it has on women, specially those who may be forced to stay at home, and watch over elderly parents, or students who are required to stay home due to online courses. Again, this decrease in production from the women who are forced to stay at home due to these children and elderly people now needing special attention results in decreased production, and a decrease in consumption. Another factor that COVID brings to the economic table includes the United States current anti-immigration policy. Being that President Trump currently has a no toleration policy regarding immigration, one disadvantage to his concept is the possible technological disadvantage that our country may face due to his extreme policy. Think about it, what if we deny the next Einstein into our country because we fear he may take some janitors job? This could result in the United States TFP going down in the long run, which would result in the total production of the goods we produce to go down as we would be less inefficient compared to if we had those possible technological advances seen by a possible immigrants ideas. This would again result in it being harder for the United States to experience sustained economic growth, which would in turn result in a lower standard of living. In the end although we are experiencing a once in a century type event, it is vital that our country remains as productive as it can, and that we do not continue these various economic policies.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisory-regulatory-action-response-covid-19.htm

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/05/14/risk-of-stimulus-spending-are-we-headed-toward-inflationand-pension-devastation/#40a8eafb1d5c

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/immigration-in-the-united-states/gJQABIXxeV_topic.html

  31. The Coronavirus Pandemic has changed our world in ways that many have never seen in their lifetimes. Economic trends have also taken a major hit from this pandemic and many common citizens and markets worldwide face financial strain.

    Job loss has been a huge issue in the United States. Many Americans have been laid off from their jobs due to limitation in the market surrounding COVID-19. “With 11.5 million jobs lost since February and the government’s monthly report Friday showing a slowdown in hiring, stories like this have become painfully common” highlights the struggles millions have and still face in today’s job market (NY Times, 2020). With many office workers away from the office and some laid-off, America’s economy has become largely service-based (NY Times, 2020).

    As if lay-offs were enough, entire industries have been disrupted, such as paper and many other manufactured goods. The Washington Post cites that “demand for printing paper fell 38 percent year-over-year in April (Washington Post, 2020).” Market changes like this can back companies into very tight corners and push them to the brink of bankruptcy. States can also take a hit because they may rely on certain industries for tax revenue. Wisconsin is the largest manufacturer of paper in the country (Washington Post, 2020). The disruption of the paper industry will send a trickle-down effect that will harm businesses and state & local governments.

    Just like unemployment for American citizens, stimulus may be effective in helping some of these troubled markets get back to where they were and beyond. This will likely be a combination of fiscal subsidies from the government and time for the markets to readjust. It’s difficult to gauge how effective the fiscal aid will be, as demand and supply has been greatly changed due to COVID-19. Some industries will die out entirely, others will continue emerge from new changes in technology and innovation.

    Sources:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true

  32. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental to the economy. However, what is most disheartening is the impact it has had on the citizens of the country. The lasting effects of this pandemic are going to be felt by the people. Just like the recessions in 2001 and 2008, our country will rebound. We will see new “all-time highs” again. However, it is the individuals of the country that will carry this burden for much longer. Some of the most affected people in the country by this pandemic are young adults in their 20’s. In May, the unemployment rate for young adults ages 18-24 skyrocketed to 15.7% (3), that is 2.4% higher than the national unemployment rate at that same time. When companies need to lay off employees, a large portion of those employees are going to be those that were most recently hired. In addition, the pandemic has done more than just creating unemployment for young adults. According to Census Bureau data in 2020, the pandemic affects the mental health of people ages 18-29 the most with “42 percent reporting anxiety and 36 percent reporting depression.” The second most affected age group are people 30-39 with “34 percent reporting anxiety and 28 percent depression” (2). Those statistics are very frightening when you begin to consider that the lasting effects of this pandemic are felt most by those that are seen to be the future of this country. This is consistent with the fear that the pandemic brings to physical health as well. One unique trait of this recession is a lingering threat to physical health. The coronavirus pandemic is unlike anything we have seen before. People are making rational decisions to adjust to life with this constant fear. Such as parents not feeling comfortable sending their kids back to day care centers (1). This is not a situation that the United States can get through quickly with or without aid from government spending. A return to normalcy is not possible without a vaccine for the virus. While the rate of new cases in the U.S. is flattening, people are still fearful not only of their ability to keep a job or put food on their family’s table, but also of the health of their loved ones. It is impossible for the United States, a country so dependent on spending (4), to have prospering businesses when nobody is even willing to go out to eat. It is not until a vaccine is developed that we will return to a period of economic growth. Even after, these long-term effects are going to continue to impact the youngest workers and so many others.

    1: https://www.thelily.com/i-had-to-choose-being-a-mother-with-no-child-care-or-summer-camps-women-are-being-edged-out-of-the-workforce/
    2: https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleid=26831&publicId=395#:~:text=The%20pandemic%2C%20according%20to%20the,anxiety%20and%2028%20percent%20depression.
    3: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/coronavirus-unemployment-2020/
    4:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html

  33. In 2019, the unemployment rate hit a 50-year low. This caused the employer-employee dynamic to favor the employees as there were not many jobs without workers and a scarcity of qualified unemployed workers. The economy was booming with fully staffed office buildings that not only had their own well-staffed service workers, but also supported many local businesses. Companies like Intel, a pillar of the Silicon Forest in Portland, Oregon, employs 20,000 mostly well-paid people whose income heavily contributed to the local economy. Big companies like Intel create an economic trickle-down effect that enables smaller businesses to survive around them. Mr. Rechler of RXR Realty estimates that every office worker sustains five service jobs, from the shoeshine booth to the coffee shop. It is an essential symbiotic relationship between big office businesses and smaller service businesses that takes place all across the country.
    This was until March of this year when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. The pandemic caused an economic shutdown that led to wide-spread layoffs, reduced hours for employees, and many businesses moving to a work from home approach. This had to direct impacts: less money for potential consumers and fewer people going to work. Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago have calculated that 37 percent of jobs can be done entirely from home. Fewer people going to work means fewer potential consumers to the local businesses. A lot of those businesses were unable to afford to stay open and were presented with only one course of action: lay everyone off and shutdown. The demand for service jobs has rapidly decreased and with the economic lockdown there does not seem to be a rebound coming anytime soon.
    Something that further complicates this issue is that with all this extra time at home many people are learning to cook and renovating their homes. Home extensions and additions have jumped 52% during the lockdown. The service industry is vast and spans many different sectors of the economy. The two that will have the hardest time recovering are the food and travel industry. The travel industry will find it difficult to recover because people who renovate their homes will see less need to leave them and because businesses have discovered the convenience of video chatting applications like Zoom. Zoom allows businesses to have remote business meetings removing the need for air travel for big companies. Another industry that will struggle to survive is the child-care industry. The child-care industry historically has operated on thin-margins and the economic loss of the lockdown could be enough to force the shutdown of many of the 675,000 small businesses in that sector, which puts in jeopardy the future employment of 1.5 million workers. The general makeup of the economy will be drastically different on the other side of the lockdown. With many businesses transitioning to working from home fewer service jobs will be necessary and many people will be forced to adapt to a vastly different job market.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    https://www.thelily.com/i-had-to-choose-being-a-mother-with-no-child-care-or-summer-camps-women-are-being-edged-out-of-the-workforce/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/29/childcare-remote-learning-women-employment/
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/pandemic-home-remodeling-is-booming-what-your-neighbors-are-doing.html

  34. Beyond popular belief the COVID pandemic is not nearly over. The virus’s effect on the economy has single handedly shifted us from a manufacturing economy to a new technological era. As a society we are forced to move our regular day to day lives online and adapt in any and every possible. This starts with service companies, which the US is mainly centered around, moving to the internet and cutting overhead costs such as rent, utilities, etc. Once yearly budgets are reviewed and show how these cuts saved the company money, the shift back will nearly be impossible. There is no going back to “normal”, this is the new normal. This is due to families, specifically parents forced to stay home due to the decision for schools to be online for young children. Families, especially the working middle class and lower, are forced to make the decision to risk their health by putting their children into childcare or risk their financial safety and increase their financial burden by taking time off work, taking out loans, or collecting unemployment (which barely helps). This unfortunately is a vicious cycle that is difficult to come out of. It is especially interesting comparing the stages of reopening in other states, to the hotspot we all live in, Virginia. Similar to how other countries bounced back faster compared to how the US handled the spread of the corona virus. This is due to two things. One being the society and culture in Europe forces its citizens to remain close, active, and engaged compared to the individual focus here in the US. Two, Europe has taken more direct actions to protect the workers in their labor market. Due to the of the lack of financial support those put-on furlough are forced to stay at home, quit to receive unemployment, may not have the ability to get a job after being the pandemic, stop looking, and becoming a discouraged.

    1.) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/europe-taking-better-approach-to-pandemic-than-us-nobel-laureate-says.html

    2.) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-being-furloughed.html

    3.) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-being-furloughed.html

  35. The Coronavirus Pandemic has radically changed the state of the U.S. market. With consumers afraid to leave their homes, the need for delivery services exploded and grocery delivery service sales skyrocketed. Before COVID-19, monthly sales in the U.S. were estimated to be 1.2 billion USD. During March, at the beginning of the pandemic, sales shot up to 4.0 billion USD and have been steadily climbing since, reaching 5.3 billion USD in April, 6.6 billion USD in May, and 7.2 billion USD in June (1). Online sales did drop in August, only reaching 5.7 billion USD. Despite this, sales are expected to continue to grow in the long run (4). These increases in sales are due to a massive increase in the number of consumers purchasing online. One poll reported 31% of all Americans were shopping online due to the pandemic, compared to the 13% shopping for groceries online before (2). Companies that provide these types of services are rapidly expanding, bringing in as many new associates as they can hire to fill the ever-growing demand for this service. Instacart has since doubled in size, bringing in 300,000 new employees to keep up with the surge in online orders (3).
    Post-pandemic, online grocery sales will drop, consumer expectations about the risk involved with going to the grocery store will change. Despite this, sales are expected to continue to stay above the pre-pandemic rate as Americans grow accustomed to having groceries delivered to their door. A poll conducted by Progressive Grocer reported that 43% of consumers using grocery delivery services were likely to continue to use the service as it becomes safe to shop for groceries again (2).
    1) https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/06/u-s-online-grocery-shopping-hits-record-7-2-billion-in-june/#:~:text=According%20to%20new%20research%20released,portion%20of%20their%20grocery%20needs.
    2) https://progressivegrocer.com/will-record-online-grocery-sales-continue-after-covid-19
    3) https://progressivegrocer.com/instacart-going-massive-hiring-spree
    4) https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/foodservice-retail/grocery-e-commerce-surge-to-continue-despite-drop-in-august

  36. The coronavirus recession is one of the most unusual recessions in world history. Lockdowns and consumer panic lead to fears of a recession, but the first signs of economic downturn was Black Monday. There, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,000 points, the biggest point loss in history. Other stock markets would crash throughout the world, a sure sign of a recession. As of September, this ongoing recession is considered to be the world financial crisis since the Great Depression, with projected global growth ranked at -3%, U.S. unemployment rates at 14.7% (the highest since the Great Recession) and the lost of 16 million jobs in the U.S>. In fact, the World Bank has predicted that some countries won’t return to pre-recession levels until 2025. To help ease the pain, the U.S. Government had passed a stimulus packaged. In terms of how the economy is going to recover, no additional stimulus packages will be needed.

    The economy is going to recover on its own. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, much of the recession was caused by government-mandated lockdowns and consumer panic. In an effort to “flatten the curve”, 40 states imposed a “stay at home” order. What this means is that all business deemed non-essential must close. The worst hit of these “non-essential” business where those involved in the entertainment industry. Many clothing stores, such as J.C. Penny, J. Crew and Stage Stores were forced to file for bankruptcy due to the lack of revenue. While some restaurants were also to thrive on take-out, many closed as sit-it dining was their main source of revenue. For the film industry, the closure of theaters meant that “big budget” films had their releases delayed or even cancelled. In fact, U.S. box office revenues are the lowest since 1998. As the lockdowns started to ease up, many businesses are slowly recovering, but are facing a loss in revenue. In addition, some people are refusing to go out in public until a vaccine is available. While the effects of the coronavirus recession are devastating, the recovery should be quick once a vaccine is available.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-tuesday-morning-bankrupt-20200527-fduq7zyxuvdppcn3cfl4lqud4e-story.html
    https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/global-great-lockdown-will-dwarf-the-great-recession
    https://theconversation.com/global-tourism-industry-may-shrink-by-more-than-50-due-to-the-pandemic-134306
    https://deadline.com/2020/03/vin-diesel-bloodshot-i-still-believe-the-hunt-weekend-box-office-coronavirus-1202882333/
    https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

  37. Covid-19 has affected every american in many obvious ways. However, there are many long run implications stemming from this virus that aren’t quite as obvious. One long run impact resulting of Covid is how many service jobs are impacted. The majority of american restaurants are either closed or are operating at a reduced capacity. The restaurants that are open have seen a decrease in traffic especially in older customers. A recent poll conducted by Business Insider, less than half of americans feel comfortable going out to eat right now. This is alarming because it shows that many restaurants’ customer base has been reduced to less than half. Which plays a factor in the rise of unemployment.

    With a huge rise in unemployment it will greatly affect the recent college graduate work force compared to non college graduates. As many skilled jobs such as data scientist, computer programmers, financial analysts, etc. all have easier ways to work from home or work virtually through technology platforms and innovations, lower skilled jobs that don’t require as much training or education do not offer ways to work virtually or work from home. Such jobs like waiters, construction workers, manual labor, etc.. are almost impossible to work virtually. This means going forward in foreseeable future it seems as those who have more certifications and education should have a much easier time finding jobs. Yes unemployment is high but it shouldn’t impact those who have jobs who have the abilities to work from home which should largely favor jobs that require more education.

    One thing when studying the economy that is important to remember is that the stock market is not the economy. The stock market had an immediate crash as covid swept through america but has largely bounced back and some companies’ stock prices are at an all time high. Now many people wonder how a the stock market can perform well when unemployment is so high. It is important to know nobody really knows how the market will perform in the future but the s&p 500 is still up about 10% from this time last year. Which means if it can continue this way or similar to how it performs, it will benefit those who have more money and higher paying jobs even more than before is unemployment stays high. Higher unemployment and continued good returns in the stock market will only benefit people with high skilled jobs even more which means the rich will get richer, the poorer will get poorer, and the middle class may shrink.

    Refrence

    https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-poll-60-of-consumers-arent-ready-to-go-back-to-restaurants-2020-7

    //www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

  38. While not necessarily a contributing factor to our economic shape, the fact that so many Americans believe that the economy is doing fine shows a great deal about what industries and which people are being hit the hardest. With 13.6 million unemployed persons in the US, it may be hard to understand how some people don’t realize how poor of a shape the economy is in, but that may be because many industries are in a new normal. While adapting to new methods of working from home was a struggle for many companies, now that it has been done it is proving to be more efficient in many industries. Jobs in computer programming, business services, and finance, among other high paying fields, are showing such little performance loss by going online that it has been estimated that 37% of jobs can be done completely from home (2). If these industries are in no rush to bring workers back, jobs like receptionists and janitors may become completely obsolete, for they need a company with a physical location to work (3). This means that no matter when vaccines are rolled out, or when public fear of covid-19 subsides, the economic impact of this recession will be felt for possibly years to come. For those in safe industries, or others that have managed to be fortunate enough to keep their job secure, it is understandable to not see these devastating effects though. When the average person thinks of the economy, they probably look to the stock market, and even more specifically to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For decades, the Dow has been the go-to indicator of the economies success for millions of people, and earlier this month it reached within 1.5% of its peak in early February. This is problematic because the Dow is comprised of only 30 companies, almost all of which either have viable means of conducting business online or relatively simple ways to bring people back to work and keep customers (i.e. McDonalds). This relatively quick rebound of the stock market may be a leading factor on why 30% of Americans believe the economy is doing well (4), and if people think things are fine, they will be much less inclined to continue to search for ways to help the millions of Americans who are still struggling from the recession, making it last even longer. If everyone gets too complacent with the new normal, companies do not bring back full service, and individuals make no effort to support small businesses or those who are struggling, this economic crisis will far outlast the last covid-19 cases.

    (1) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
    (2) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html
    (3) https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d
    (4) https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/economy/economy-perception-pew-study/index.html

  39. As states began to reopen in May, many people were optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy. Businesses slowly returned to life as the number of new cases started to decrease and as more people were spending their stimulus checks and unemployment benefits (1). By the beginning of June, stock prices of many publicly traded companies returned to their pre-pandemic highs (2) and we began to hear more and more that we were experiencing a v-shaped recovery and that the recession might only be three to four months old. Everything seemed fine until the end of July, when the BEA released its 2020 Q2 reports. The real GDP decreased by an annual rate of 31.7%, the worst ever recorded decline in U.S. history (3). Other data showed that nearly 18 million people were out of work despite all the stimulus efforts and the CARES act. The belief of a v-shaped recovery began to look unrealistic (4) as a vast majority of small businesses, which constitute a major force of the U.S. GDP (about 44%), were either closed or out of business (5).

    After learning that there’s no chance of a v-shaped economy, we started asking ourselves again what we should do to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The fed has done its part by pledging to keep interest rates near zero until 2023 (6), and the secretary of treasury Mr. Mnuchin is still negotiating with the Congress on a new stimulus bill (7). Unlike 2008, the 2.0 stimulus package won’t be a bailout. The aid package will combat the economic slowdown from the pandemic by extending unemployment benefits and replacing 70% of wages (8).

    In my opinion, the stimulus package will help boost the economy. However, it shouldn’t be effective until after finding a vaccine. The economic crisis that we are currently experiencing is a lot different than all the previous economic crises. Unlike the great depression, the dot-com bubble, or the subprime crisis, stimulating the economy with an aid package or by lowering (or keeping low) the interest rates won’t restart it like in the past. It won’t change anything. Today, we are not in crisis because of a bubble, a decrease in consumer spending, or a high unemployment rate, we are in a crisis because there is a virus that threatens our lives. All these tools will be ineffective until we solve our main problem, the virus

    (1) https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-coronavirus-lockdowns-are-lifted-slow-return-to-normality-begins-11590667200

    (2) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC

    (3) https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter

    (4) https://fortune.com/2020/07/01/coronavirus-economic-impact-v-shaped-recovery-covid-cases/

    (5) https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/

    (6) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-signals-interest-rates-to-stay-near-zero-through-2023-11600279214

    (7) https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/09/14/mnuchin-says-more-stimulus-needed-dont-worry-about-the-deficit/#90181ac785fd

    (8) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/coronavirus-stimulus-gop-unemployment-plan-would-have-70percent-wage-replacement.html

  40. With the Corona Virus lasting well over half a year and no end in sight, it is clear that there will be a substantial impact on the job market that will spark a necessary change in how our economy and businesses operate. As over 29 million people receive unemployment insurance1 and many more who are recently joining the job market, there is a high demand for jobs that are simply unavailable due to worries of infection and distancing regulations. This decrease in production and consumption of products has led to an all time low GDP2 that businesses and consumers desperately seek to turn around. Accomplishing this will require intuitive changes that will make up for losses while also adapting to new standards.
    Perhaps turning to the history of growth for both old and new countries will provide an insight for solutions to a declining GDP and steps we must take to increase production. Taking South Korea for example, a country that is considered a growth miracle due to its exponential increases in GDP within a short timeframe3, there is an evident benefit to the economy from the way it adapts and revolutionizes as it shifts from one industry to another. For instance, South Korea was able to industrialize its economy shifting from agriculture to technology and business which allowed the country to become one of the top 10 exporters in the world3 as it emphasizes new technologies and innovations that boost supply and GDP. Taking this insight and applying it to the United States, the U.S. has moved towards a service-based economy1 that shifts further from a focus on new technologies. Under the impression that industrialization is the key to economic development and growth over time, it may be in the economy’s best interest to shift back to a technological focus in order to provide new innovations that can change markets, boost production, increase exports, and provide services that meet the needs of people and businesses in the new age of the pandemic.
    This thinking, however, comes with the sacrifice of people’s jobs under the belief that a focus on technology will turn jobs autonomous and will require substantial portions of the job market to reevaluate their careers and livelihoods. With many other opinions, ideas, and options on the table, it is unclear how the economy will eventually turn out, but every outcome will require a substantial change and sacrifice somewhere in hopes to return to a pre-covid production.

    (1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/03/some-881000-people-claimed-jobless-benefits-last-week-labor-market-continues-feel-pain-pandemic/?tidr=a_breakingnews&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-breaking-news%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar

    (2) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/us-gdp-q2-2020-second-reading.html

    (3) https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/march/how-south-korea-economy-develop-quickly

  41. Taking a slightly different approach, I want to unpack the effects of the coronavirus recession on minorities specifically. By looking at the great recession, we can see that not only were minorities more heavily impacted, but those impacts lasted much longer. There were substantial long-term unemployment increases that lasted through 2017, pointing to an L-shaped recovery. This time around, however, unemployment rates skyrocketed past what they were during the housing market crash in 2008. Nearly 60% of Hispanic households have at least one family member whose income has been negatively affected by the pandemic: nearly 50% higher than the national average of 43%. By looking at the trends from the 2008 recession, it seems that the damage caused by the coronavirus could be much longer lasting than what was first believed. Unemployment rates are unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels for several years for the general population, let alone people of color if past recessions tell us anything. That is hard to say, however, since unemployment rates shot up so quickly and dramatically compared to recessions in the past. Minorities occupy a disproportionate amount of lower-income jobs, which were hit hardest by the pandemic. Unfortunately, that also means that people who were already struggling financially are more likely to feel the burden of the virus than those who could more readily afford to bear the economic weight of the crisis. I think that in order to speed up or begin the recovery of the economy, it is important to first reestablish the workforce and bring people out of unemployment. Compounding the disproportionate unemployment is the increased rate of infection among minorities, who are more likely to live in more confined spaces and lack quality health care. Slowing or stopping the spread of the virus is key to the widespread reopening of businesses and getting things moving again. Beyond the overall health of the economy, low-income workers being unemployed continues to push the already high wealth gap further.
    https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/08/04/coronavirus-economic-downturn-has-hit-latinos-especially-hard/.
    https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2020/04/14/483125/economic-fallout-coronavirus-people-color/.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/17/residential-segregation-plays-role-covid-19-disparaties-study-finds/.

  42. I firmly believe the United States economy will see long-run changes due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years we have seen our economy shift to become more service based, but the effects the pandemic has had on the economy has also brought questions and uncertainty for many Americans. Out of every place this pandemic has hit, cities have been crippled the most. Historically, cities have hosted “tens of millions of jobs for workers without a college education”, making up “around one-fifth of adults working age who do not have a college degree” (1). With cities on lockdown, many of these low-wage workers have nowhere to turn. Tourism certainly isn’t happening, and people can rarely leave their place of living if they are even comfortable doing so. The hotel industry has tanked from the pandemic as well. Many massive retailers such as JC Penny and J Crew have collapsed, leaving practically no business untouched. These factors have wiped out millions of service jobs, effecting urban low wage employees the greatest. I believe tshe destruction of these jobs and instability in the economy will stick with Americans for generations to come. The growing service industry is now viewed as weak and fragile, with giant retailers such as JC Penny and small businesses such as FoodBarFood here in Harrisonburg suffering alike. Job stability could be come increasingly important, however that may not mean checking in to work every single day. What may last is the increasing number of jobs that can be done from home. According to a University of Chicago study, “37 percent of jobs can be done entirely from home” (1). I believe we could see the shift to at-home work stay after the economy has recovered from the pandemic, with less people working 9-5 in an office building 5 days a week. People’s comfort levels have totally shifted, and the economy will shift around that.
    So, what can the government do now to help boost the economy back into strength? I believe the return will be slow, as people’s attitudes toward leaving their homes to work, shop, travel, or whatever else will take a long time to get comfortable. The FED has made efforts to supplement the economy with money such as the CARES act stimulus program, the Main Street Lending program, and lending large amounts to nonprofits. I believe there is too much for the FED to make up, so our path to economic recovery will be slower than in the past, for example the V shape of the mid 1950’s (2). The programs that have been implemented have not done enough and had too much confusion surrounding them. The 454-billion-dollar Main Street program may not be worth taking for businesses, as they are worried about future repercussions (3). I believe it will take longer than we have seen before to get the economy back on track, and the FED is just trying to keep it afloat.

    1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/business/economy/service-economy-workers.html

    2. blob:https://www.wsj.com/fb562ebb-65ab-4f8e-a787-7dd1c2633d92

    3. https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-600-billion-main-street-lending-program-sees-lukewarm-interest-11593608400

  43. The implications of the COVID-19 crisis are frightening for all, with 11.5 million jobs lost since February of 2020; however, the effects of the pandemic are especially concerning in what they mean for mothers.

    About 27 million, roughly half, or essential workers are women working jobs that cannot be done remotely. On top of this, women with children in particular are finding it increasingly difficult to stay employed, due to the extreme shortage of child-care options. According to the Washington Post article titled Coronavirus child-care crisis will set women back a generation, one out of four women stated that their unemployment during the pandemic was due to an inability to provide child-care, while men report child-care as their reason for unemployment at half the rate of women.

    This problem has not been properly addressed yet by the US government, as the 675,000 child-care providers that are small businesses and employ 1.5 million workers have received only $3.5 billion back in March. This was a fraction of the emergency aid offered to airlines under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or Cares Act.

    The brunt of this child-care crisis is borne by the women of this country and it will be detrimental to those who wish to have a successful, long-lasting career. There have been great strides made in that more women attain a successful career and also have families. However, the depletion of child-care options for mothers and the fact that one-third of the parents in the workforce have children under 14 years of age who need child-care, leaves many women without a choice.

    There needs to be additional funding provided to child-care businesses, as without the support they provide to mothers in the workforce the economy could continue to lag behind due to the absence of the women in the workforce. In addition to this, women who opt out of the workforce will have to forgo the benefits that come with staying with an employer for the long-term, such as increases in pay and promotions.

  44. The COVID-19 pandemic, while currently understood to have less of an immediate health impact in the form of deaths or other permanently debilitating damage for younger people when compared to their older counterparts (1); will undoubtedly have a long-term impact on the younger generation of Americans. Today’s younger generation is faced with an unprecedented amount of pressure and abrupt change in their lives. The Great Recession cratered hiring projections for new graduates by nearly 22% in the Spring of 2009 (2), leading them to compete with future graduating classes in seeking entry-level employment, those same graduates saw total employment declined by 6.3% and had to wait 51 months for those jobs to come back by May 2014 (3). While we cannot currently predict with any degree of certainty the continuing spread and economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in looking at current data, it may be fair to assume the current economic crisis will have even greater impacts on recent and soon-to-be college graduates.

    Not only are we currently faced with the worst job market outlook since the Great Depression (4,5), but the global pandemic continues to threaten every-day life as well as the job market. While the country continues a path of “re-opening”, with varying levels of success, it remains that “29 million people were receiving some form of unemployment insurance as of mid-August” (6). COVID will shape both the Class of 2020 and future graduating classes in lasting ways. Popular employment platform Yello found in April that 64% of summer 2020 internship programs had been canceled (7), a number that quite likely grew as the pandemic worsened in the following months. Not only are graduates faced with a bleak job outlook; a reality that forced many graduates in the Great Recession to turn to part-time or gig work, but without any jobs available, the social safety net in the United States has a massive hole through which graduates are falling. Many graduates and soon-to-be graduates lost their part-time jobs as businesses shuttered their doors and were unable to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits as they had not been working long enough. These young adults have also had little time to build up substantial savings or a “rainy day fund” as it is often referred to.

    The economic rebound from the COVID crisis is likely dependent on two necessary factors; containment and treatment of the virus which will necessarily precede a return in the job market. Stimulus packages and supplemental unemployment insurance payments can aid in keeping households and business from collapsing and suffering, aiding the speed of economic recovery, but graduates into this unprecedented world around them must adapt and overcome the hurdles facing them, or be set back as many graduates were during the Great Recession.

    1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
    2. https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/24/news/economy/great-recession-college-graduates/index.html
    3. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/current-employment-statistics-survey-100-years-of-employment-hours-and-earnings.htm
    4. https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
    5. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/us/bad-job-market-graduates-coronavirus/index.html#:~:text=(CNN)%20The%20Class%20of%202020,market%20since%20the%20Great%20Depression.
    6. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/64percent-of-canceled-job-internships-offer-no-compensation.html
    7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/03/some-881000-people-claimed-jobless-benefits-last-week-labor-market-continues-feel-pain-pandemic/?tidr=a_breakingnews&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-breaking-news%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar

  45. To correctly answer whether we need more stimulus or not in the economy from economist point of view, one must know all the variables that play in the macro economy because its never ceteris paribus in the real world. Macroeconomics has more variables than we talk in economics classes. Its variables are as many as the stars in the sky. Did we know in 2019 that, we were going to be in a big recession in 2020. The answer is probably not. Even with inverted yield curve, many people were predicting economic growth that is because no one knew that the world will be in an unprecedented pandemic. Besides from not being able to take every variable into account, I think it is almost impossible to create a model that correctly simulates human behavior. The reason why this is important is that GDP which probably is the most important metric in the macroeconomics that measures how much a society produces in a certain period of time. How much we produce is heavily influenced by our behaviors and decisions in that period of time. One might say it is better to make decision with imperfect economic model than making decision with none. I would say it is better to make decision knowing that one does not know everything with certainty. If you ask my opinion without a model, without certainty about the recession, stimulus and its impacts. Here is what I think. We need stimulus but not for the corporations and banks but for the general public. You might think it will increase the inflation as Milton Friedman argued. However, I think its better for the society and it won’t increase the inflation. Here is why. When government gives money to certain corporations, its almost like they are deciding which one should survive but I think public knows better which one the society needs more. By giving money to the general public, people will use that money to buy the product or services they like. That will indirectly save the companies that is supposed to be saved. Second, it won’t increase the price level or at least it wont be proportional. One big reason is people save now. Milton Friedman basically argued if the economy has five apples and each cost one dollars and then if you double the money supply price of apple will be two dollars each. However what he did not consider is that there is only limited amount of apples one can eat in a day.

    1)
    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019
    2)
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/recession-watch-what-is-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-does-it-matter/

  46. Day in and day out we continue to recognize more and more problems that are growing due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We have faced recessions before, but no one was prepared for something like this nearly half a year ago. Companies, organizations, and families are being dismantled and broken apart, but when will they be fixed? “Where are we now and what has yet to come” is a common question that everyone wants an answer to. Harsh times are continuing to get worse. Parents for instance are having to decide who is going to stay home and which one will work. Families are missing on needed income to support their livelihood. For instance, we see a trend that women are mostly chosen to fill this roll, to not only be a “good mom”, but also because of women being more likely to be laid off by their employers (1). Parents stay home to care for their kids since daycares, schools, and babysitters are nearly impossible to find nowadays. Unemployment is continuing to rise through the roof and there seems to be no stop anytime soon. Nearly a million people, roughly 800,000, in the span of a week in the beginning of September reported to now be unemployed (2). Before the COVID-19 pandemic we had not seen these jaw-dropping numbers since a staggering 695,000 unemployment cases in 1982. Even with business starting to “reopen” we are still witnessing the surge of unemployment numbers flying past the number of individuals returning to the workforce. Some companies may be able to alter their ways and reopen, but some companies have already fallen through and have no hope for revival. The Wisconsin paper industry is a prime example of how even some of the largest companies are still taking a toll. The Wisconsin Paper industry was nearing to be a twenty-billion-dollar company prior to our current Pandemic (3). Now, they are merely a thought of the past putting almost 100,000 people jobless. This company has its hands tied in plenty of everyday goods and services we use, but their absentee may change how we see everyday activities. People and companies are running out of money. Our economy is in a pit and with no end in sight, as individuals, we must continue to make ways with what little we have and hope for a resolution for our families, friends, and loved ones.

    (1) https://www.thelily.com/i-had-to-choose-being-a-mother-with-no-child-care-or-summer-camps-women-are-being-edged-out-of-the-workforce/
    (2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/03/some-881000-people-claimed-jobless-benefits-last-week-labor-market-continues-feel-pain-pandemic/?tidr=a_breakingnews&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-breaking-news%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar
    (3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true

  47. The short-run without a doubt is going to hurt. It already is for many Americans. Putting aside the economic factors, people are simply scared and just don’t have the confidence in contributing to our economy right now due to the virus. In the long-run, things will certainly look better, and once the vaccines start rolling out the economy is going to make a big rally. Until then, the government can still do a fair bit to help everyone impacted. Providing another set of stimulus checks and extending unemployment benefits should seriously be considered since most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck(1) according to a May 2019 Charles Scahbb survey.

    On top of that, the small business loans that were given out is something I would like to see the US government expand upon. Over 100,000 small businesses have shut down(2) since the beginning of this pandemic due to the high fixed costs that small business owners still have to pay even while their businesses are shut down. If the government rolls out another set of PPP loans(3), the terms/guidelines need to be rewritten since the first set of loans wasn’t much help to anyone. Out of the 45 million loan applicants for the first set of PPP loans, only 1.8 million were accepted which is about only 4%. With that being said, some of these loans were given out to publicly traded companies(4) with high market caps in the millions and even tens of millions. If the government were to give out another set of loans, restricting publicly traded companies and putting a cap so that businesses that are worth up to a certain threshold can take out loans would help and not let big companies take advantage of the program. The guidelines attached to these loans such as requiring 60% of the loan amount to be towards payroll should be tossed so that business owners have 100% control over how to allocate their resources.

    Putting aside the Fiscal side of things, there isn’t much more the FED and Jerome Powell can do since interest rates have been slashed to record lows almost to the same level as 2008. Lowering interest rates is supposed to encourage more interest-sensitive spending but since people are struggling to just pay off their bills and new businesses aren’t opening because of the current state of the economy, it’s very hard to see any new capital being added to the economy.

    1.https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/14/paycheck-to-paycheck-most-americans-struggle-financially-survey-says/39940123/

    2.https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/12/small-business-used-define-americas-economy-pandemic-could-end-that-forever/

    3.https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/coronavirus-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program

    4.https://metroplexsocial.com/list-publicly-traded-companies-got-ppp-loans-small-business-administration/

  48. COVID-19 is possibly one of the worst thing that has happened to our economy since The Great Depression. Then again, was it? A quote from CNN Business in New York states the following, “A new study from the Pew Research Center says 69% of Americans think the current economic situation is bad, while 30% think it’s good. By comparison, only 17% thought the economy was in good shape in 2009”(1). This raises the question, why are people so much more optimistic about the state and recovery of the economy, versus how people felt of the economy back in the 2008 to 2009 Great Recession. The reason for this is because many of the jobs that were lost during The Great Recession were those in the construction and manufacturing industries(1). On the other hand, a majority of the jobs that were lost today were those jobs within the service sector which largely include industries in travel and hospitality(1). When the manufacturing and construction jobs took a fall during the Great Recession, those were such jobs that inevitably have a harder time building back up and re-hiring. Now, looking at the service industries like hospitality and travel, these jobs have a much easier time building back up, when the time comes, due to there being much less complexity in the process. Take small businesses for example, that fall under the hospitality industries. These jobs and institutions will have a bit of an easier time re-hiring for several reasons. One of these reasons being that those industries employ much more women then men. This is a liable statement because it is seen that in today’s world, there are more women enrolled in college than men, (about 60% compared to 40% men), giving women the superior advantage of entering these struggling industries when it comes to getting out of the economic crisis.

    Then again, there is there is another issue that arises of having women entering into these industries which is the problem with the COVID-19 child car crisis. The majority of women in the work-force now have to care for their young children who are schooling online. “One out of four women who reported becoming unemployed during the pandemic said it was because of a lack of child care — twice the rate among men”(2). This becomes a big issue to restoring the economy when these women filled industries are the ones that are struggling the most. In addition, child-care centers along with child-care staff have been greatly reduced due to the fear of the virus, inevitably increasing the issue of getting back into the workforce(2). With the hope of an accessible vaccine becoming available soon, we can expect the when America is able to return to normal, these struggling service industries can again be saturated by women, including the vast amount of female college graduates entering the workforce, boosting the economy once again.

    (1) – https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/economy/economy-perception-pew-study/index.html

    (2) – https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/29/childcare-remote-learning-women-employment/

  49. The effects of the Coronavirus on the economy, in the long run, are unknown. But by looking at the short-term effects we may be able to piece together some of the implications of the virus in the future. Many people across the nation have lost their jobs either temporarily or permanently over this past summer.
    Darrell Fox was one of those many employees that lost their job permanently, he worked for a paper mill in Wisconsin, but now has been shut down for good (1). The mill was already on the decline due to the advancements in technology, and paper being used less and less, but since the Coronavirus the decline in paper has been exponential and abruptly put this paper mill out of business. The virus also increased the use of automation and AI and decreased the amount of human interaction. Jobs like tollbooth workers have been pushed out of their positions faster than ever and replaced with things like Easy Pass, or cleaning crews being replaced by AI robots that clean the floors themselves, or even here at JMU this semester they now added the starships which are robots that deliver you food anywhere on campus removing many delivery driver jobs (2). This is happening all around the country. The question is what is the real impact of these jobs being lost?
    The paper mill in Wisconsin closing did not only affect the people who worked there but since that plant used to purchase 25% of all timber from Wisconsin land it also “impacts the haulers who are bringing the wood to the plant, it impacts the loggers who are cutting down the wood, and then it affects landowners” (1). It creates a chain reaction of people who are affected by this one paper mill shutting down. Clearly, the impact of Coronavirus goes much deeper than just the surface and there are probably more long-term effects of this virus that we still don’t even know about yet. But even though a lot of jobs have been lost from this, many more have been created, unfortunately, these new jobs are not in the field of expertise that the unemployment are equipped with. These new jobs are in Computer science, robots and automation, and Artificial Intelligence. These fields are taking over many unskilled labor jobs and replacing them with robots and automation. Very soon you will see a decline in the truck driving industry which employee about 3.5 million people (3). Soon automation and self-driving vehicles will replace these jobs, but new jobs will be created from this. This is because you will need someone to fix these self-driving trucks, the problem that arises is that these truck drivers who get laid off will most likely not have the skill set to fix these trucks.
    The full effects of the Coronavirus have yet to be seen and very hard to predict what the future will hold. What we do know that is many people will lose their jobs permanently due to technological unemployment and some will get jobs in the future that we don’t even know about yet.
    (1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/wisconsin-paper-mill-shutdown-coronavirus/?arc404=true
    (2) https://time.com/5876604/machines-jobs-coronavirus/
    (3) https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps-on-trucking.html#:~:text=More%20than%203.5%20million%20people,occupations%20in%20the%20United%20States.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *